VOL.42 · 2026 Global Trade Outlook Special Edition

The World Trade Supercycle
Begins Again

According to UNCTAD data, global goods trade grew about 12.5% quarter-on-quarter to roughly $13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026. AI infrastructure and EV demand are driving the goods-trade expansion, and East Asia has become the world's strongest growth engine. Semiconductors and data-transmission equipment are leading the surge in sales.

Trade & Commerce Magazine Live Coverage · 7 Continents H2 2026 Outlook Inside

Global trade network mapped over the earth at night

13.7 Trillion USD
H1 2026 goods trade

Global goods trade volume

13.7trn USD

UN Trade & Development (UNCTAD)

H1 2026, up ~12.5% vs prior quarter

AI & EV demand engine

+12.5%

Semiconductor & data-transmission demand surge

High-tech goods drive the trade expansion

Digital trade cost drop

-15%

DEPA expansion · e-invoice harmonization

Cross-border digital service costs plunge

Africa intra-trade share

18%

AfCFTA free-trade zone effect

Turning geopolitical risk into homegrown industry

CONTINENTS

Seven Continents Briefing — the world economy, read on a map

From Asia to Antarctica — the latest trade and economic momentum, continent by continent.

Asia — East Asia, the strongest growth axis on earth

UN report: China & South Korea remain the core of world goods-trade growth

According to the UNCTAD report, East Asia — especially China and South Korea — remains the most powerful engine of global goods-trade growth. In early 2026 the region posted the world's strongest merchandise-trade growth rate.

US–China leadership summit heldConfidence restored

The two presidents met in Washington for their second face-to-face summit of the year, negotiating a "30-for-30" deal suspending tariffs on $30bn each of non-critical goods. Talks also went deep on AI trade controls.

Semiconductor & data-gear demand explodesDigital inputs surge

Riding the AI infrastructure boom, semiconductor wafers and data-transmission equipment are leading East Asia's export growth. Combined with RCEP cumulation rules, intermediate-goods flows are at record highs.

EU–Philippines FTA & India–Canada talks advance

The EU and the Philippines achieved a major breakthrough in free-trade talks, while Canada and India declared good progress toward sealing a deal before the G20 summit. Expectations of stable US–China trade are lifting regional investor confidence.

Europe — services trade diverging, digital legislation accelerating

The temperature gap inside Europe, per the latest OECD data

The latest OECD data shows intra-European services trade diverging. Transport and tourism revenue is accelerating France's services exports, while Germany and Italy have slowed slightly.

France accelerates transport & tourism exportsServices engine

Backed by strong transport and tourism earnings, France's services exports are accelerating, posting Europe's standout growth.

Digital-trade chapters fast-tracked

The EU is racing to embed dedicated "digital trade & e-commerce" chapters in its preferential trade agreements, moving fast to codify cross-border digital services.

CSDDD in full force — green supply-chain retrofit

With the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive entering full enforcement in 2026, exporters to Europe must now pass labor and environmental audits across their entire supply chain. Compliance cost has become this year's central EU trade-negotiation issue.

North America — services & IP rebound amid supply-chain re-shaping

A new order triggered by the six-year USMCA joint review

US services exports are visibly accelerating, powered by strong demand for IP licensing and ICT exports. Meanwhile the US–Canada border supply chain faces localized re-shaping pressure from tariffs and policy shifts.

IP & ICT services exports surgeUS surplus widens

US services exports are accelerating, with patent licensing and ICT services becoming the new axis of North American exports.

US–Canada emergency supply-chain talks

As tariffs and policy posturing put cross-border supply chains under adjustment pressure, the two countries opened emergency consultations on auto-parts and agricultural trade rules.

The USMCA six-year joint review begins

The three nations have opened sensitive renegotiations over redefining automotive rules of origin and the share of Asian capital in Mexico's nearshoring investments. See the Deep Dive reports for the full story.

South America — the new nearshoring heavyweight

A lithium & copper export rush and a customs digital overhaul

With the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea lanes still in turmoil, South America has turned geographic proximity into leverage — now the No.1 destination for European and American companies diversifying supply chains and building regional production bases. Demand for critical metals and minerals (lithium, copper) is exploding.

Lithium exports surge — Argentina H1 +68%Record mining exports

Per September 2026 data, Argentina's first-half lithium exports soared about 68% year-on-year, with total mining exports hitting a record $4.74 billion.

A "second copper triangle" emerges

Argentina's RIGI investment-incentive law has attracted mega-projects from BHP and Lundin Mining, forming a new "copper triangle" alongside Chile and Peru. South America is expected to hold about 28% of global copper supply going forward.

Brazil's customs digital overhaulClearing time -40%

Brazil's mandatory rollout of the DUIMP single import declaration system has cut clearance times by 40%. Shipping majors like Maersk say customs in South America's largest market is now dramatically simplified.

Africa — the era of homegrown growth unlocked by AfCFTA

Intra-trade tops 18%, turning geopolitical turmoil into industrialization

Backed by the African Continental Free Trade Area, Africa's intra-continental trade share has climbed to about 18%. The Afreximbank report finds Africa is converting global geopolitical turmoil into homegrown industrialization in 2026.

Consensus on value-added resource strategy"Unstoppable Africa 2026"

At the just-concluded high-level summit, African leaders agreed to move beyond exporting crude and critical minerals to building local refining and manufacturing supply chains, keeping more trade value on the continent.

PAPSS rollout — cross-border payment costs down 20–30%

As the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) spreads, central banks settle directly in local currencies, saving businesses 20–30% in FX and correspondent-bank fees.

China's zero-tariff wave for AfricaEffective May 1, 2026

China has implemented zero tariffs on all products from every African diplomatic partner. With South African citrus (12%) and red wine (14–20%) duties gone, African agricultural competitiveness has strengthened sharply.

Oceania — pivoting to green energy and produce exports

Australia & New Zealand aim their green playbook at Asia

Australia and New Zealand are scaling up green hydrogen and low-carbon produce exports to Asia. To hedge commodity-price swings, they are also joining multilateral digital trade agreements to de-risk traditional resource exports.

Critical-minerals orders hit a highRare earths · Li · Ni

Australia's strategic critical-minerals partnerships with the US and EU have entered a peak order phase. Exports of neodymium and other rare-earth elements, plus lithium and nickel concentrates, are booming in H2 2026.

China-bound exports fully past pre-spat peak

With tariffs on wine, barley and other traditional goods fully normalized, September exports to China have recovered — and passed — the pre-diplomatic-spat peak.

Green hydrogen & low-carbon produce accelerate

Both governments are simultaneously expanding green hydrogen and low-carbon produce exports to Asian markets, transforming resource-dependent trade structures.

Antarctica — science data and quota fishing, quietly high-value trade

Running steadily under the Antarctic Treaty system

Antarctica has no permanent residents or traditional commerce. But research-station resupply, scientific data sharing (non-commercial digital service flows), and strictly quota-regulated Southern Ocean fishing trade all run steadily under the Antarctic Treaty.

Science "big-data flows" 3× more efficientSpring 2026 season

The 2026 Antarctic spring science season has begun. Sharing efficiency for the climate, glacial and space-science data flows generated jointly by multinational stations has tripled after the new satellite-network upgrade.

CCAMLR quota fishing holds its high-price boom

Under the strict quota regime of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), exports of krill and Antarctic toothfish continue to enjoy stable, high-price demand in 2026.

A model of non-commercial governance

With commercial territorial claims suppressed, Antarctica's international joint-governance model is being studied as a reference for designing future global digital-data trade norms.

DEEP DIVE

Deep Dive Reports — six forces rewriting global trade order

Tariffs, supply chains, critical minerals, digital rules, autos and logistics — the core stories that will decide H2 2026, examined in depth.

REPORT 01 · ASIA RCEP at year five The zero-tariff era begins

RCEP tariff extinction — electronics & machinery reshaped

2026 marks five years of RCEP. Under the linear, phased tariff-cut schedule, most key product lines have reached their final 0% this year — over 85% of traded goods now live in a de facto tariff-free era.

Electronics — cumulation rules in full swing

Fully zero-tariff flows of semiconductor wafers, display panels and electronic components among China, Japan, Korea and ASEAN are now reality. The RCEP regional-value-content cumulation rule has hit peak usage — 40% regional value-added unlocks zero duty. Cross-border production costs for smartphones, PCs and other complex goods have fallen 8–12%.

Machinery — integrating Korean, Chinese & Japanese parts

Previously tariffed at 5–10%, high-end hydraulic parts, precision reducers and CNC core components from Japan and Korea now enter at 0%. China's construction-machinery and robotics costs have dropped 3–5%, sharpening price competitiveness across ASEAN infrastructure markets like Indonesia and Vietnam.

85%+Product lines at zero duty

8~12%Electronics production-cost cut

40%RVC cumulation threshold

REPORT 02 · AFRICA Rules of origin: 100% agreed China zero tariff

AfCFTA — the "passing ritual" for tariffs and rules, complete

AfCFTA has graduated from a framework agreement into a fully operating system. In February 2026 the AU Assembly formally adopted rules of origin for the automotive, apparel and textile sectors, completing 100% of rules-of-origin negotiations.

Guided trade ends → full implementation begins

The pilot Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) concluded its mission at the end of 2025, and 2026 entered full implementation. Non-sensitive goods — 90% of all products — are phasing down to zero tariffs. Industrial and agricultural powers like South Africa and Egypt are issuing certificates of origin at scale, activating low- and zero-duty flows of manufactures and processed farm goods across the continent.

The external dividend — China's blanket zero tariff

From May 1, 2026, China applies zero tariffs across all tariff lines for every African country with diplomatic ties. South African citrus (12% relief) and wine (14–20% relief) exports to China have surged, transforming the global competitiveness of African agriculture.

100%Rules-of-origin talks complete

90%Non-sensitive goods at zero duty

20~30%PAPSS FX & intermediary savings

REPORT 03 · SOUTH AMERICA Lithium & copper export rush US EXIM $7bn

South America's critical minerals — the lithium & copper showdown

Supply-chain diversification (nearshoring) in Europe and the US, plus hard green-energy demand, has ignited fierce capacity expansion and export rivalry across South America's lithium triangle and copper belt.

Lithium — Argentina booms, Chile restructures

Argentina: H1 2026 lithium exports up +68%; total mining exports hit a record $4.74bn. Rio Tinto's Rincón brine project lifted output +53% in the half.
Chile: despite soft near-term prices, it is enforcing a state-led PPP model (Codelco majority stake), processing 80% of mined lithium domestically into battery-grade carbonate and hydroxide before export to defend its value chain.

Copper — a "second copper triangle" emerges

Argentina's RIGI incentive law has pulled in mega-investments from BHP and Lundin Mining, fast-tracking the giant Vicuña copper project. Outlook: South America holds about 28% of global copper supply through 2035, peaking at 16–17 million tonnes in 2036. Argentina's copper exports alone are expected to grow ~5× from today.

+68%Argentina lithium exports (H1)

4.74bn$Record mining export total

7bn$US EXIM backing for Argentina

5×Argentina copper growth outlook

REPORT 04 · EUROPE Now a non-tariff barrier Fines up to 5% of turnover

The EU CSDDD — Asia's new manufacturing entry gate

Entering full enforcement in 2026, the CSDDD has shifted from "guidance" to a non-tariff barrier for Asian exporters to Europe. European buyers are passing compliance pressure down entire chains to avoid fines of up to 5% of global turnover.

From policing firms to policing whole chains

Europe's automotive and electronics giants now force tier-1, tier-2 and tier-3 Asian suppliers onto EU supply-chain traceability systems. Companies unable to deliver the required data are being removed from core-supplier whitelists.

The new gate — environmental & labor due diligence

Decarbonization proof: beyond product energy efficiency, exporters must submit factory green-power ratios and carbon-footprint data.
Labor audits: independent third parties must certify labor-rights compliance (working hours, safety and more) to EU standards.

REPORT 05 · NORTH AMERICA Six-year joint review Auto supply-chain showdown

The USMCA 2026 review — a three-way battle over auto supply chains

In July 2026, the USMCA reached its first six-year joint review since signing. What was meant as a routine check has turned into a three-way battle over automotive supply chains among the US, Mexico and Canada.

"Asian capital" becomes the flashpoint

The US Commerce Department and USTR argue that Mexico has absorbed heavy EV and component investment from Asia, especially China, and demand rule changes to strictly limit "origin-laundering" by Asian-linked suppliers transiting through Mexico.

Tighter ROO vs the counter-attack

The US proposes keeping the 75% regional-value-content (RVC) rule while raising domestic content of core EV parts like batteries and drive motors to 80%+. Mexico pushes back to protect its nearshoring-hub independence, while Canada warns that overextending "national security" could fragment North American supply chains.

75%Current RVC requirement (held)

80%+US demand: core-parts localization

2026.7First-ever joint review launched

REPORT 06 · GLOBAL Multilateral & digital trade Shipping-lane diversification

Multilateral deals & logistics — the new digital and green gateways

WTO green trade guidelines

The WTO recently issued "green multilateral trade guidelines" to defuse friction over carbon tariffs (e.g., the EU's CBAM) between advanced and developing economies — aiming to stop climate policy from morphing into a new protectionism.

DEPA spreads, digital trade costs -15%

The world's first digital-only trade pact, DEPA, is enjoying a golden era of expansion. Harmonized e-invoicing, cross-border digital identity and data-flow rules have cut global digital-services trade costs by ~15% this year.

CPTPP accession talks make real progress

Following the UK's formal accession, market-access reviews for new applicants are advancing in intensive closed-door sessions outside the APEC framework, accelerating the re-shaping of Asia-Pacific trade blocs.

Alternative sea routes and green surcharges

Amid geopolitical risk on traditional lanes, the "Trans-Caspian transport corridor" and the "Arctic Northeast Passage" both posted record commercial cargo volumes in summer 2026. The big shipping alliances' "green fuel surcharges" lifted long-haul ocean logistics costs 6–9%, pushing shippers into diversified logistics mixes. The UK and other advanced economies locking in CBAM timelines signals carbon barriers are going global.

-15%Digital trade costs (this year)

+6~9%Long-haul ocean freight rise

5yrsYears since RCEP entered force

COUNTRY WATCH

Country Watch — the 10 hottest economies right now

From Saudi Arabia to Antarctica — this week's positive trade and economy news from around the world, at a glance.

Saudi Arabia

MIDDLE EAST · NON-OIL EXPORTS

Non-oil exports break 35% for the first time — Vision 2030 pays off

Per the statistics authority: chemical, plastics and premium building-materials exports have grown explosively, completing the leap from single-resource dependency to a diversified trading nation.

Non-oil share 35%+

Germany

EUROPE · MACHINERY & ENV-TECH

CSDDD triggers a green machinery export rush

In Q3 2026, exports of advanced automation machinery, carbon-capture equipment and green-hydrogen core parts surged. Leveraging technological dominance, September orders hit a three-year high.

Env-tech orders: 3-yr high

United Kingdom

EUROPE · DIGITAL SERVICES

Out of the Brexit shadow — digital services exports surge +14%

Benefiting from full integration into DEPA-family agreements, exports of fintech, AI algorithm services and legal advisory jumped in H2 — total digital exports to Asia and North America are at record highs.

Digital exports +14%

Mexico

NORTH AMERICA · NEARSHORING

Even under USMCA review, vehicle & electronics exports +19%

With Ford, GM and Asian electronics giants ramping local plants, exports of passenger cars, precision medical devices and semiconductor packaging to North America jumped 19% year-on-year in Aug–Sep. Mexico's core position in the North American consumer-electronics chain is now entrenched.

Aug–Sep exports +19%

Canada

NORTH AMERICA · AGRI & CLEAN ENERGY

First agri-food & green ammonia shipments to Asia-Pacific

With the Canada–India talks breaking through market access ahead of the G20, wheat, pulses and seafood orders hit record highs. The first shipments under long-term green-ammonia contracts with Japan and Korea have also set sail.

Grain & seafood orders at record

Brazil

SOUTH AMERICA · AGRI & CUSTOMS

DUIMP system fully live — clearing time -40%

The single import/export declaration system cut clearing time by 40%. As of September, soy, beef and pulp exports to Asia and the Middle East set all-time records.

Clearing time -40%

Morocco

AFRICA · AUTOS & GREEN H2

Africa's No.1 vehicle exporter strengthens its crown — Sep +22%

Thanks to the 100% AfCFTA rules-of-origin agreement, the Tangier auto cluster's EVs and powertrain components enjoy zero or near-zero duties across Africa and into Europe — cementing Morocco as the super-hub linking the two continents.

Sep exports +22%

Kenya

AFRICA · HORTICULTURE & PROCESSED FOOD

Cold-chain air freight expands — record horticulture exports

Kenya Airways' major expansion of cold-chain cargo routes from Nairobi to Europe and Asia helped cut flowers, avocados and processed macadamia exports to a record Q3, sharply widening non-traditional farm-forex earnings.

Q3 horticulture exports at record

Australia

OCEANIA · RARE EARTHS

Western supply-chain favorite — rare-earth exports boom

With strategic minerals pacts with the US and EU now in force, exports of neodymium and other rare earths, plus lithium and nickel concentrates, are booming in H2. Wine and barley exports to China have fully surpassed their pre-spat peak.

China exports past old peak

Antarctica

SPECIAL ZONE · SCIENCE & QUOTA FISHING

Science-data exchange up 3× — satellite comms upgrade

Sharing of the climate, glacial and space-science data flows co-generated by multinational stations is now 3× faster on the new satellite network. Krill and Antarctic toothfish under CCAMLR quotas continue to enjoy stable high-price demand.

Data sharing 3×

DATA ROOM

World trade in numbers — the Data Room

Official statistics and industry forecasts, compressed into one chart at a time.

Goods-trade momentum by continent

H1 2026 · relative strength index

East Asia

Very strong

South America

Strong

North America

Expanding

Africa

Expanding

Oceania

Recovering

Europe

Mixed

Africa's intra-continental trade share

Since AfCFTA · share of intra-African trade

AfCFTA has lifted intra-continental trade to about 18%. Combine the PAPSS payments revolution with 100% rules-of-origin agreement, and Africa is evolving into the world's fastest-integrating single market.

100%Rules of origin done

90%Goods headed to zero duty

3×Data-sharing efficiency (Antarctica)

Semiconductor & digital-materials demand

Monthly export volume index · Jan–Sep 2026 · driven by AI infrastructure investment

JanMarMayJulSep

TIMELINE

The Events of 2026 — moments that defined the year

Tariffs, agreements, supply chains — a chronological record of the events that moved world trade history in 2026.

FEBRUARY 2026

AU Assembly completes 100% of AfCFTA rules of origin

Formal adoption of rules of origin for the automotive, apparel and textile sectors completed the entire AfCFTA rules-of-origin negotiation. Goods holding an AfCFTA certificate of origin now formally enjoy tariff relief among member states.

MAY 1, 2026

China applies zero tariffs on all African products

China implemented zero tariffs across all tariff lines for every African diplomatic partner. Relief on South African citrus (12%) and wine (14–20%) sent African agricultural exports to China soaring.

JULY 2026

USMCA opens its first six-year joint review

The three nations entered sensitive renegotiations over redefining automotive rules of origin and the share of Asian capital in nearshoring. Auto supply chains became the defining North American trade issue of the year.

SEPTEMBER 2026

US EXIM pledges up to $7 billion for Argentina

The US Export-Import Bank announced up to $7 billion in financing for Argentine mining and energy projects, fully backing US supply-chain lithium and shale procurement. Argentina's mining exports continued their record run.

H2 2026

Big-three shipping alliances roll out green fuel surcharges

Tightened IMO emission rules mean traditional heavy-fuel vessels face higher levies at European and American ports, lifting long-haul ocean logistics costs 6–9%. Chile responded with lithium export-quota controls while Argentina used its RIGI law to scrap export duties entirely — policies diverging hard.

Q3 2026

GTI ends, AfCFTA enters full implementation; RCEP reaches tariff endgame

With the Guided Trade Initiative concluding, AfCFTA's full implementation phase has begun, while RCEP has reached its endpoint of zero duties on 85%+ of product lines. The year two mega-blocs entered the zero-tariff era together.

OUTLOOK

Editorial Outlook — signals beyond the data

Three trade and capital-markets specialists read the direction of H2 2026.

The era of tariffs is fading, but the era of regulation has begun. Over the next three years, the winners in global exports won't be those with the lowest duties — they'll be those with the fastest compliance.

Jiwoon Han, Senior AnalystGlobal Trade Research · international trade policy

Lithium and copper are no longer resources — they are diplomatic cards. Argentina's openness versus Chile's control: these two opposite experiments will decide South America's map for the next decade.

Marcos D. RojasEmerging-markets minerals & energy editor

Watch PAPSS and DEPA. When the way payments and data cross borders changes, the very shape of trade gets redesigned. Africa and Asia are the laboratories.

Isabelle FontaineDigital economy & multilateral agreements correspondent

The World Trade SupercycleBegins Again